Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.153041 0.181271 0.214460 0.256681 0.309421 0.373734 4.590307e-01
2025-07-27 0.124338 0.160760 0.208510 0.276954 0.374655 0.512473 7.279076e-01
2025-08-03 0.101976 0.141991 0.199627 0.291578 0.440307 0.682379 1.131405e+00
2025-08-10 0.081995 0.121569 0.183382 0.291893 0.489012 0.857749 1.673844e+00
2025-08-17 0.065353 0.102181 0.163858 0.281709 0.519897 1.029203 2.378971e+00
2025-08-24 0.055429 0.091282 0.155621 0.289674 0.592970 1.344952 3.810946e+00
2025-08-31 0.047474 0.081935 0.147822 0.296778 0.673111 1.759217 6.266470e+00
2025-09-07 0.041283 0.074404 0.141599 0.305925 0.769351 2.337462 1.084482e+01
2025-09-14 0.036201 0.067873 0.135754 0.314593 0.876476 3.117852 1.960344e+01
2025-09-21 0.031182 0.060384 0.125875 0.309648 0.944227 3.889254 3.339585e+01
2025-09-28 0.025114 0.049483 0.105489 0.268189 0.860645 3.864428 4.047010e+01
2025-10-05 0.022562 0.045817 0.101617 0.274055 0.966029 5.118203 8.138124e+01
2025-10-12 0.020584 0.043213 0.100185 0.289102 1.139194 7.438145 2.181417e+02
2025-10-19 0.018918 0.041014 0.099309 0.306719 1.357729 11.205663 7.610060e+02
2025-10-26 0.017252 0.038474 0.096850 0.318286 1.573472 16.503984 3.405716e+03
2025-11-02 0.015407 0.035116 0.091115 0.314600 1.703124 22.067219 1.726098e+04
2025-11-09 0.013590 0.031495 0.083663 0.300323 1.749764 27.179823 1.088525e+05
2025-11-16 0.012467 0.029538 0.080958 0.306306 1.976757 40.218611 2.226421e+07
2025-11-23 0.011472 0.027745 0.078325 0.311710 2.226575 60.583494 NaN
2025-11-30 0.010635 0.026247 0.076302 0.319559 2.537782 96.184689 NaN
2025-12-07 0.009887 0.024871 0.074347 0.327130 2.888283 157.709723 NaN
2025-12-14 0.009038 0.023045 0.070293 0.320688 3.066977 226.421184 NaN
2025-12-21 0.007813 0.019914 0.060701 0.276594 2.638210 192.732957 NaN